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Swine Flu's Rate of Spread, Revisited

A team of European researchers has analyzed the outbreak of the novel H1N1 virus in Mexico and calculates twice as much spread per infected person as an earlier report in ScienceExpress. The new study, published in Eurosurveillance, concludes that each infected person infects between 2.2 and 3.1 others, a “reproduction ratio” in keeping with those of other pandemic influenza viruses. The earlier paper in ScienceExpress, which factored in the likelihood that there was much underreporting in the official case numbers, calculated a reproduction ratio of only 1.4 to 1.6.