We appreciate that many factors affect salmon population dynamics (1, 2) as well as sea lice transmission and pathogenicity (3, 4). In our Report (5) we tested for the effect of salmon lice infestations on pink salmon population dynamics and controlled for other factors by using a comparative approach. Pink salmon population dynamics in areas exposed and unexposed to salmon farms were nearly identical before lice infestations began in the exposed area. During the infestations exposed populations declined significantly, whereas unexposed populations remained productive. Because the two areas share the many factors that affect pink salmon population dynamics—evidenced by their synchronous fluctuations (6)—but differ in lice infestations (7–12), the infestations likely caused the difference in pink salmon population dynamics between the two areas.
Tlusty suggests factors other than farms may have caused the infestations in the exposed area. The stickleback hypothesis is easily rejected because early life stages of sea lice dominate infestations of juvenile wild salmon near salmon farms (7, 9–12), whereas lice on stickleback do not survive to reproductive age (13, 14). Also, stickleback are widespread in British Columbia, whereas sea lice infestations on juvenile salmon have only occurred near salmon farms. Bacterial loads in the Broughton Archipelago may be higher than in unexposed areas, possibly also due to salmon farms, but there is no evidence of increased bacteria predisposing juvenile Broughton pink salmon to lice, despite research programs conducting comprehensive pathology screening. Temperature may have increased, but it did so similarly in both exposed and unexposed areas (15). We cannot identify anything about the "quality" of Broughton pink salmon that may underlie the infestations. These factors suggested by Tlusty do not correlate well with the lice infestations and don't suggest causal processes.
The evidence that salmon farms caused the infestations and pink salmon population declines in the Broughton Archipelago is extensive. Where there are no salmon farms, louse abundance is low on pink salmon during early marine life because the vast majority of wild adult salmon that carry the parasite are offshore (1, 7, 8). Salmon farms produce large quantities of naupliar and copepodid lice during the early marine life of wild pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago (16), and many studies have documented the transmission from farm to wild juvenile salmon (7, 9–12). Lice are pathogenic to juvenile pink salmon during early marine life (10, 17) and the mortality rate of infected pink salmon is very similar when estimated from small-scale experiments (10), and analyzing multi-year multi-population escapement and infestation data (5). These quantitative mechanistic linkages form a consilience of scientific evidence that indicates causal processes are underway, not spurious correlation.
Martin Krkošek
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Jennifer S. Ford‡
Biology Department, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.
Alexandra Morton
Salmon Coast Field Station, Simoom Sound, BC, Canada.
Subhash Lele
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Mark A. Lewis
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
‡present address: Ecology Action Centre, Halifax, NS, Canada.
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