The Research Article, "The product space conditions the development of nations" by C. A. Hidalgo, B. Klinger, A.-L.Barabási, and R. Hausmann (27 July 2007, p.482) describes an interesting study in which network representations are used to visualize proximities among the products that countries export, and their evolution. On the basis of this work we would like to suggest possibilities for further investigations.
Related comparative advantage (RCA): It would be interesting to incorporate in product space other factors, e.g., foreign direct (or indirect) investments (1) and the sizes of self-consumers or "prosumers" (consumers who also produce) (2). As RCA is based on the average of countries and weighted more towards a few countries (e.g., "80-20" rule), it may hide some product space and structural transformations in low-export countries. Also, RCA may be normalized by GDP or economic size. One question regarding modular structures in the product space is, how are they compared to those in random networks?
Sub-scales: It would be desirable to consider product sophistication sub-scales within each classification, examining where products are exported (e.g., vehicles exported to developed countries may differ, in nature/sophistication, from those to developing countries). We may build a food-web-like network representation, where countries are nodes and import/export products are links, i.e., inter-country, directional flows of varying sophistication scales. Global/local structures, e.g., in/out-degrees of countries, and their evolution may thus be characterized.
Transformations: We conjecture that certain critical economies-of-scale exist with respect to the weighted GDP per capita of countries with comparative advantage in a good (PRODYs) in different countries. Transformations can be modeled as the mean field effects of different/related types of products, where respective diffusion probabilities are derived. They are sensitive to critical time windows as well as product life cycles. Their dynamics are determined by the laws of diminishing return and increasing return.
Jiming Liu
Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
References
1. UNCTD, World Investment Report 2006, (United Nations, New York and Geneva, 2006).
2. A. Toffler, H. Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth, (Alfred Knopf, New York, 2006).