E-Letter responses to:

editorial: Donald Kennedy Climate Change and Climate Science Science 2004; 304: 1565 [Summary] [PDF]

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The uncertain geography of climate change

Edward H Allison   (30 July 2004)

The uncertain geography of climate change 30 July 2004
Edward H Allison, Senior Lecturer in Natural Resource Management School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich U.K. Respond to this E-Letter: Re: The uncertain geography of climate change	We are told (Editorial, Science 304, p. 1565, June 11 2004) that climate change modeling is an inexact science. So, it seems, is map-reading. Mount Kilimanjaro's "photogenic snowcap" is in Tanzania, not Kenya. The consequences of the imminent loss of the mountain's glaciers (1) do, however, concern both countries and provide a good example of how global climate change may be interacting with and affecting local climate and environmental change. The Pangani River basin, an important source of water to both people and wildlife in Tanzania and Kenya, is fed by the snows of Kilimanjaro. Its flows have been much reduced over the last four decades by decreasing precipitation in the mountain area (including decreasing snowfall on the glacier) and increased demand from irrigation and hydropower schemes (2). Glacier meltwater also recharges the main spring in the famous Amboseli National Park, at the foot of the northern (Kenyan) slopes of Kilimanjaro (2); its loss would affect wildlife populations and reduce tourism revenues. Localized daily temperature increases in the Amboseli area over the last 25 years have been an order of magnitude higher than the 0.2 to 0.3 degrees C attributable to global climate change (3), possibly as a consequence of glacial melting and deforestation on the mountain slopes. Meanwhile, on Mount Kenya (which I can confirm is definitely in Kenya), the glaciers are also in rapid retreat (4), with similar implications for the productive agricultural zones around the foot of the mountain. Amusing though it may be to catch out the editor of "Science" making a simple and uncharacteristic error of political geography, the more serious point is that, given the uncertainties in future climate change, we have to make sure of the certainties. 1. L. G. Thompson et al., Science 298, 589 (2002). 2. IUCN, The Pangani River Basin. A Situation Analysis (IUCN Eastern Africa Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, 2003). 3. J. Altmann et al., Afr. J. Ecol. 40, 248 (2002). 4. S. Hastenrath, P.S. Krass, Nature 355, 503 (1992).