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Science 19 January 2007:
Vol. 315. no. 5810, p. 297
DOI: 10.1126/science.315.5810.297n
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This Week in Science

Many different processes can contribute to sea-level rise, but too few of them are well enough understood for models to allow accurate process-based projections of sea-level rise to be made with much certainty. Rahmstorf (p. 368, published online 14 December) circumvents those critical gaps in understanding by using a semi-empirical technique, which uses the observed relation between rates of change of global mean surface air temperature and sea level for the 20th century to predict what sea level may be through 2100. In this way, using warming scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he calculates a range of sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level by 2100. If correct, the uncertainty in current sea-level change predictions has been underestimated.




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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)