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ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE: Climate Forcing by Aerosols--a Hazy Picture
Theodore L. Anderson, Robert J. Charlson, Stephen E. Schwartz, Reto Knutti, Olivier Boucher, Henning Rodhe, Jost Heintzenberg
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are believed to have counteracted the global-warming effect of greenhouse gases over the past century. However, the magnitude of this cooling effect is highly uncertain. In their Perspective, Anderson et al. argue that the magnitude and uncertainty of aerosol forcing may be larger than is usually considered in models. This would have important implications for the total climate forcing by anthropogenic emissions, and hence for predicting future global warming.
T. L. Anderson is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. E-mail: tadand{at}u.washington.edu R. J. Charlson is in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. S. E. Schwartz is in the Atmospheric Sciences Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973, USA. E-mail: ses{at}bnl.gov R. Knutti is in Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. O. Boucher is in the Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, CNRS, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, 59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq Cedex, France. H. Rodhe is in the Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. J. Heintzenberg is in the Institute for Tropospheric Research, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany.
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[DOI: 10.1126/science.302.5651.1679] |Full Text »|PDF »
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Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints.
