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Science 8 November 2002:
Vol. 298. no. 5596, pp. 1181 - 1182
DOI: 10.1126/science.1079074
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Perspectives

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY:
Predictive Ecology to the Rescue?

Isabelle M. Côté and John D. Reynolds

The rate of biodiversity loss from our world is staggering. The most recent Red List of Threatened Species lists 25% of the world's mammalian species, 12% of birds, and between 20 to 30% of fishes, reptiles, and amphibians as being threatened with extinction. What are we to do? In a provocative Perspective, Côté and Reynolds analyze two new studies (Kolar and Lodge, Lens et al.) that develop models to predict how invading species and forest fragmentation affect the survival of native species. The authors discuss how accurate predictions will help in implementing control measures to stem the tide of biodiversity loss.

The authors are at the Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK. E-mail: i.cote{at}uea.ac.uk

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)