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Science 30 November 2001:
Vol. 294. no. 5548, pp. 1835 - 1837
DOI: 10.1126/science.1065226
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Policy Forum

CLIMATE CHANGE:
Enhanced: Recent Reductions in China's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

David G. Streets1*, Kejun Jiang2, Xiulian Hu2, Jonathan E. Sinton3, Xiao-Quan Zhang4, Deying Xu4, Mark Z. Jacobson5, James E. Hansen6

Using the most recent energy and other statistical data, we have estimated the annual trends in China's greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1990 to 2000. The authors of this Policy Forum calculate that CO2 emissions declined by 7.3% between 1996 and 2000, while CH4 emissions declined by 2.2% between 1997 and 2000. These reductions were due to a combination of energy reforms, economic restructuring, forestry policies, and economic slowdown. The effects of these emission changes on global mean temperatures are estimated and compared with the effects of concurrent changes in two aerosol species, sulfate and black carbon.

1D. G. Streets is in the Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, USA. 2K. Jiang and X. Hu are at the Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Energy Research Institute, Beijing 100038, China. 3J. E. Sinton is in the Energy Analysis Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. 4X.-Q. Zhang and D. Xu are at the Forest Ecology and Environment Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China. 5M. Z. Jacobson is in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, CA 94305, USA. 6J. E. Hansen is at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dstreets{at}anl.gov.

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