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Science 20 July 2001:
Vol. 293. no. 5529, pp. 430 - 433
DOI: 10.1126/science.1062001
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Policy Forum

CLIMATE CHANGE:
Uncertainty and Climate Change Assessments

John Reilly,* Peter H. Stone, Chris E. Forest, Mort D. Webster, Henry D. Jacoby, Ronald G. Prinn

Clear and quantitative discussion of uncertainties is critical for public policy making on climate change. The recently completed report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed the uncertainty in its findings and forecasts. The uncertainty assessment process of the IPCC should be improved in the future by using a consistent approach to quantifying uncertainty, focusing the quantification on the few key results most important for policy making. The uncertainty quantification procedure should be fully documented, and if expert judgment is used, a specific list of the experts consulted should be included.

The authors (except M.D.W.) are in the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA. M. D. Webster is in the Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jreilly{at}mit.edu

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)