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Science 19 January 2001:
Vol. 291. no. 5503, pp. 438 - 439
DOI: 10.1126/science.291.5503.438
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Policy Forum

ENVIRONMENT:
The Future of the Brazilian Amazon

William F. Laurance,* Mark A. Cochrane, Scott Bergen, Philip M. Fearnside, Patricia Delamônica, Christopher Barber, Sammya D'Angelo, Tito Fernandes

The Brazilian Amazon is currently experiencing the world's highest absolute rate of forest destruction and is likely to suffer even greater degradation in the future because of government plans to invest $40 billion from 2000 to 2007 in dozens of major new highways and infrastructure projects. We developed two computer models that integrate spatial data on deforestation, logging, mining, highways and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wildfires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests by the year 2020. Both models suggest that the region's forests will be drastically altered by current development schemes and land-use trends over the next 20 years.

W. F. Laurance is a research scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado 2072, Balboa, Panamá, and Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP), National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA), C.P. 478, Manaus, AM 69011-970, Brazil. M. A. Cochrane is a research scientist at the Basic Science and Remote Sensing Initiative (BSRSI), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA. S. Bergen is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. P. M. Fearnside is a research scientist at the INPA Ecology Department. P. Delamônica is assistant director of the BDFFP, C. Barber is a research associate at BSRSI, and S. D'Angelo and T. Fernandes are BDFFP research assistants.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: wfl{at}inpa.gov.br

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E-Letters:

Read all E-Letters

The Future of the Brazilian Amazon
Roberto Goidanich
Science Online, 26 Jan 2001 [Full text]
Re: The Future of the Brazilian Amazon
W. F. Laurance et al.
Science Online, 1 Feb 2001 [Full text]
Carbon-Offset Funding and the Brazilian Amazon
Peter C. Frumhoff and Bill Stanley
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]
Author Response to P. Frumhoff and B. Stanley
Philip M. Fearnside and William F. Laurance
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]
Predicting the Effects of Amazon Development on Deforestation
Stephan Schwartzman and Robert Bonnie
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]
Author Response to S. Schwartzman and R. Bonnie
William F. Laurance, Mark A. Cochrane, Philip M. Fearnside, Scott Bergen, and Patricia Delamonica
Science Online, 31 May 2001 [Full text]
Science and the Future of Amazon Policy
D. Nepstad, P. Moutinho, AC Barros, G Carvalho, A Alencar, J Capobianco, L Solorzano
Science Online, 18 Jul 2001 [Full text]

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