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Science 8 September 2000:
Vol. 289. no. 5485, pp. 1693 - 1694
DOI:

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Policy Forum

CLIMATE:
The Ethiopia Food Crisis--Uses and Limits of Climate Forecasts

Kenneth Broad and Shardul Agrawala

Post-cold war investment in science--particularly in the case of seasonal to interannual climate forecasting--is increasingly justified by the goal of demonstrating explicit societal benefit. A review of the 2000 food crisis in Ethiopia and the state of the science of seasonal forecasting is sobering and underscores the need to foster more realistic expectations among both policy-makers and scientists about the uses and limits of climate forecasts in alleviating complex social problems.

The authors are at the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. E-mail: kbroad{at}iri.ldeo.columbia.edu and shardul{at}iri.ldeo.columbia.edu

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Countering the Loading-Dock Approach to Linking Science and Decision Making: Comparative Analysis of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasting Systems.
D. W. Cash, J. C. Borck, and A. G. Patt (2006)
Science Technology Human Values 31, 465-494
   Abstract »    PDF »
Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice.
J. W Hansen (2005)
Phil Trans R Soc B 360, 2037-2047
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.
R. C Stone and H. Meinke (2005)
Phil Trans R Soc B 360, 2109-2124
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe.
A. Patt, P. Suarez, and C. Gwata (2005)
PNAS 102, 12623-12628
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Integrating Climate Forecasts and Societal Decision Making: Challenges to an Emergent Boundary Organization.
S. Agrawala, K. Broad, and D. H. Guston (2001)
Science Technology Human Values 26, 454-477
   Abstract »    PDF »


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)