CLIMATE:
The Kyoto Negotiations on Climate Change: A Science Perspective
Bert Bolin
The Kyoto agreement means that the total annual emissions of greenhouse gases by Annex-I (that is, developed) countries during the next 10 to 15 years should stabilize at the level of their emissions in 1995, which represented a decrease since 1990 by 5%. Because any Annex-I Party can acquire reduction units from another such Party, it seems likely that Annex-1 countries that so far have not been able to reduce their emissions, primarily countries in economic transition such as Russia and Ukraine, will wish to buy emission permits from those that have substantially reduced their emissions. Since no emission targets were agreed for Non-Annex-I countries, the rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the next 10-15 years will remain at about the same level as during the last decades and concentrations will reach about 380 ppmv by 2010.
The author is past chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and is in the Department of Meteorology, University of Stockholm, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: bert.r{at}osteraker.mail.telia.com
