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Science 14 March 1997:
Vol. 275. no. 5306, pp. 1616 - 0
DOI: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616
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Perspectives
Robert J. Geller, David D. Jackson, Yan Y. Kagan, Francesco Mulargia
Can the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes be predicted reliably and accurately? In their Perspective, Geller et al.'s answer is "no." Citing recent results from the physics of nonlinear systems "chaos theory," they argue that any small earthquake has some chance of cascading into a large event. According to research cited by the authors, whether or not this happens depends on unmeasurably fine details of conditions in Earth's interior. Earthquakes are therefore inherently unpredictable. Geller et al. suggest that controversy over prediction lingers because prediction claims are not stated as objectively testable scientific hypotheses, and due to overly optimistic reports in the mass media.
R. J. Geller is at the Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, Tokyo University, Yayoi 2-11-16, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. E-mail:bob{at}global.geoph.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan are at the Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA. E-mail:djackson{at}ucla.edu and ykagan{at}ucla.edu. F. Mulargia is at the Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofisica, Universita di Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 8, 40127 Bologna, Italy. E-mail:mulargia{at}ibogfs.df.unibo.it
Also see the archival list of Enhanced Perspectives
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