ECONOMICS:
The Promise of Prediction Markets
Kenneth J. Arrow,1 Robert Forsythe,2 Michael Gorham,3 Robert Hahn,4* Robin Hanson,5 John O. Ledyard,6 Saul Levmore,7 Robert Litan,8 Paul Milgrom,1 Forrest D. Nelson,9 George R. Neumann,9 Marco Ottaviani,10 Thomas C. Schelling,11 Robert J. Shiller,12 Vernon L. Smith,13 Erik Snowberg,14 Cass R. Sunstein,7 Paul C. Tetlock,15 Philip E. Tetlock,16 Hal R. Varian,17 Justin Wolfers,18 Eric Zitzewitz,19
The ability of groups of people to make predictions is a potent research tool that should be freed of unnecessary government restrictions.
1Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
2College of Business, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA
3Stuart School of Business, Illnois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60661, USA
4Reg-Markets Center at American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC 20036, USA
5Department of Economics, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
6Department of Economics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
7University of Chicago Law School, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
8Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, MO 64110, USA
9Department of Economics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA
10Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA
11School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
12Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
13Chapman University School of Law, Orange, CA 92866, USA
14Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
15Yale School of Management, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
16Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
17School of Information, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
18The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
19Department of Economics, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: rhahn{at}aei.org.
