Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.
Science Signaling - Call For Papers

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Originally published in Science Express on 1 February 2007
Science 4 May 2007:
Vol. 316. no. 5825, p. 709
DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Brevia

Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Stefan Rahmstorf,1 Anny Cazenave,2 John A. Church,3 James E. Hansen,4 Ralph F. Keeling,5 David E. Parker,6 Richard C. J. Somerville5

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14482 Potsdam, Germany.
2 Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, 31400 Toulouse, France.
3 Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart Tasmania, 7001, Australia.
4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY 10025, USA.
5 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
6 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature: Adapting agriculture to climate change.
S. M. Howden, J.-F. Soussana, F. N. Tubiello, N. Chhetri, M. Dunlop, and H. Meinke (2007)
PNAS 104, 19691-19696
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty.
R. Edwards (2007)
Progress in Physical Geography 31, 621-632
   PDF »


ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)