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Science 1 December 2006:
Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445
DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027
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Reports

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment

B. N. Goswami,1* V. Venugopal,2 D. Sengupta,2 M. S. Madhusoodanan,2 Prince K. Xavier2

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Doctor Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India.
2 Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka 560 012, India.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: goswami{at}tropmet.res.in

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