Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.
The Wellcome Trust

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Originally published in Science Express on 2 March 2006
Science 31 March 2006:
Vol. 311. no. 5769, pp. 1917 - 1921
DOI: 10.1126/science.1119929
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change

Maarten de Wit* and Jacek Stankiewicz

Across Africa, perennial drainage density as a function of mean annual rainfall defines three regimes separated by threshold values of precipitation. This nonlinear response of drainage to rainfall will most seriously affect regions in the intermediate, unstable regime. A 10% decrease in precipitation in regions on the upper regime boundary (1000 millimeters per year) would reduce drainage by 17%, whereas in regions receiving 500 millimeters per year, such a drop would cut 50% of surface drainage. By using predicted precipitation changes, we calculate that a decrease in perennial drainage will significantly affect present surface water access across 25% of Africa by the end of this century.

Africa Earth Observatory Network (AEON) and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: maarten{at}cigces.uct.ac.za

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Restoring Pan-African-Brasiliano connections: more Gondwana control, less Trans-Atlantic corruption.
M. J. de Wit, J. Stankiewicz, and C. Reeves (2008)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications 294, 399-412
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends.
S. Piao, P. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, D. Labat, and S. Zaehle (2007)
PNAS 104, 15242-15247
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Demanding Supply Management and Supplying Demand Management: Transboundary Waters in Sub-Saharan Africa.
J. Lautze and M. Giordano (2007)
The Journal of Environment Development 16, 290-306
   Abstract »    PDF »
Arid geomorphology: investigating past, present and future changes.
S. Tooth (2007)
Progress in Physical Geography 31, 319-335
   PDF »
Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries.
J. Rockstrom, M. Lannerstad, and M. Falkenmark (2007)
PNAS 104, 6253-6260
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)