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Science 20 January 2006:
Vol. 311. no. 5759, p. 313
DOI: 10.1126/science.311.5759.313d
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Random Samples

When public health officials talk about the chances that H5N1 will reach the United States this flu season, most don't back up their chatter with cold cash. But a gaming house has, offering a 20-to-1 payoff should people start coming down with the much-watched virus before 6 April.

General manager Peter Ross of YouWager.com says his house based its odds on the speed and direction the virus has been moving in Asia and Europe. Ross says 4 days into wagering, the public appears pessimistic--so if bird flu arrives, the company stands to lose big. Neuroscientist Adil Khan of the Buck Institute for Age Research in Novato, California, a seasoned wagerer, points out that chance may not play the only role: "The last thing you want to get is a big bettor who goes out and brings back the bird flu themselves."




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