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Originally published in Science Express on 27 October 2005
Science 25 November 2005:
Vol. 310. no. 5752, pp. 1333 - 1337
DOI: 10.1126/science.1115233
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Reports

Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter,1,2* Wolfgang Cramer,1 Rik Leemans,3 I. Colin Prentice,4 Miguel B. Araújo,5,6 Nigel W. Arnell,7 Alberte Bondeau,1 Harald Bugmann,8 Timothy R. Carter,9 Carlos A. Gracia,10 Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert,1 Markus Erhard,11 Frank Ewert,3 Margaret Glendining,12 Joanna I. House,4 Susanna Kankaanpää,9 Richard J. T. Klein,1 Sandra Lavorel,13,14 Marcus Lindner,15 Marc J. Metzger,3 Jeannette Meyer,15 Timothy D. Mitchell,16 Isabelle Reginster,17 Mark Rounsevell,17 Santi Sabaté,10 Stephen Sitch,1 Ben Smith,18 Jo Smith,19 Pete Smith,19 Martin T. Sykes,18 Kirsten Thonicke,4 Wilfried Thuiller,20 Gill Tuck,12 Sönke Zaehle,1 Bärbel Zierl8

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
2 Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
3 Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, UK.
5 School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, UK.
6 Museo Nacional de Ciencas Naturales, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
7 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
8 Department of Environmental Sciences, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
9 Finnish Environment Institute, 00251 Helsinki, Finland.
10 Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications, University of Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain.
11 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
12 Agriculture and the Environment Division, Rothamsted Research, AL5 2JQ Harpenden, UK.
13 Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier, 38041 Grenoble, France.
14 Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, Montpellier, France.
15 European Forest Institute, 80100 Joensuu, Finland.
16 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, NR4 7TJ Norwich, UK.
17 Département de Géographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
18 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
19 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU Aberdeen, UK.
20 Kirstenbosch Research Center, South African National Biodiversity Institute, 7735 Cape Town, South Africa.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dagmar.schroeter{at}gmail.com

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