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Science 18 March 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5716, pp. 1766 - 1769
DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934
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Reports

The Climate Change Commitment

T. M. L. Wigley

Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

E-mail: wigley{at}cgd.ucar.edu

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)