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Science 21 May 2004:
Vol. 304. no. 5674, pp. 1114 - 1115
DOI: 10.1126/science.1096427
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Policy Forum

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY:
Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over

Leonardo Maugeri

A new tide of oil doomsters is once again heralding the end of the Oil Era. The so-called Hubbert model, which they use, considers geology a faith more than a dynamic science influenced by many factors. Hydrocarbon reserves are finite--of this there is no doubt. And yet, contrary to the Hubbertians' claims, no one knows just how finite they are. More than geology, technology and economics dominate the evolution of reserves. The problem with the oil doomsters' thesis, according to the policy forum by Maugeri, is that geology is not destiny, but rather only a part of a much more complex picture that does not indicate the world is running out of oil.

The author is group senior vice president, Corporate Strategies, Eni Spa, Rome, Italy.

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Going Beyond Panaceas Special Feature: Panaceas, uncertainty, and the robust control framework in sustainability science.
J. M. Anderies, A. A. Rodriguez, M. A. Janssen, and O. Cifdaloz (2007)
PNAS 104, 15194-15199
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Oil market power and United States national security.
R. Stern (2006)
PNAS 103, 1650-1655
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)