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Daniel Pauly,1*Jackie Alder,1Elena Bennett,2Villy Christensen,1Peter Tyedmers,3Reg Watson1
Formal analyses of long-term global marine fisheries prospectshave yet to be performed, because fisheries research focuseson local, species-specific management issues. Extrapolationof present trends implies expansion of bottom fisheries intodeeper waters, serious impact on biodiversity, and decliningglobal catches, the last possibly aggravated by fuel cost increases.Examination of four scenarios, covering various societal developmentchoices, suggests that the negative trends now besetting fisheriescan be turned around, and their supporting ecosystems rebuilt,at least partly.
1 Sea Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. 2 Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA 3 School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 3J5, Canada.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: d.pauly{at}fisheries.ubc.ca
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