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Science 20 June 2003:
Vol. 300. no. 5627, p. 1844
DOI: 10.1126/science.300.5627.1844l
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This Week in Science
The early transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been modeled by two research groups (see the Perspective by Dye and Gay). A crucial epidemiological parameter is R0, the basic reproductive rate, which is a measure of how many secondary cases a primary case generates under uncontrolled conditions. Lipsitch et al. (p. 1966) modeled the epidemiology of SARS using a comparative approach that does not overstretch the limited data and offer a cautious interpretation of the impact of control measures. SARS is sufficiently transmissible, as judged by estimates of R0 around 2, to cause a large epidemic if unchecked, but not so transmissible as to be uncontrollable with public health measures. Riley et al. (p. 1961) used a spatial, dynamic model of transmission of the causative agent of SARS in an attempt to replicate the Hong Kong outbreak. In Hong Kong, the epidemic appears to have been brought under control, apart from the risk of a super-spreader event rekindling the epidemic. This outcome was the result of reduced contact with infectious persons, rapid hospitalization of symptomatic people, and restrictions on longer range travel.
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)
