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Science 23 May 2003:
Vol. 300. no. 5623, p. 1215
DOI: 10.1126/science.300.5623.1215c
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ScienceScope

Scientists who last year found a computational problem with key air pollution studies have released new results, finding that soot is linked to only half as many deaths as they once believed. The corrected results will allow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to move ahead with a delayed review of the risks posed by fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5.

In 1997, EPA moved to regulate PM2.5 after studies found that daily death rates in polluted cities rise slightly with spikes in emissions of fine soot from vehicles and power plants. But last year, Johns Hopkins University scientists studying the issue in 90 cities discovered a glitch in a statistics software package they and others used (Science, 14 June 2002, p. 1945). A reanalysis has concluded that death risks rose only half as much as the Hopkins team had previously estimated. Soot risks also declined in 37 other studies reviewed.

The results "won't necessarily change [the EPA soot standard] dramatically," because it also rests on other data, says Dan Greenbaum of the Health Effects Institute in Boston, which oversaw peer review of the reanalyses. But the corrected estimates will allow EPA scientists to complete a review of particulate risks, now due out in June. And under a proposed settlement reached last week with environmental groups, EPA now has until December 2005 to update its soot regulation. That task was supposed to be completed last year.




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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)