Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the Need for Energy Without CO2 Emission
Ken Caldeira,1*
Atul K. Jain,2
Martin I. Hoffert3
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
calls for "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system." Even if we could determine a "safe" level of
interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean
temperature to increasing atmospheric CO2 is known perhaps
only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three
uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty
in allowable increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and
allowable CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate
sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high,
climate stabilization will require a massive transition to
CO2 emission-free energy technologies.
1 Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, L-103, Livermore, CA
94550, USA.
2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 105 South Gregory Street,
Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
3 Department of Physics, 4 Washington Place, MC 1026, New York University, New York, NY
10003-6621, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
kenc{at}llnl.gov
