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Science 23 November 2001:
Vol. 294. no. 5547, pp. 1726 - 1728
DOI: 10.1126/science.1066838
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Reports

Estimation of Epidemic Size and Incubation Time Based on Age Characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom

Alain-Jacques Valleron,1 Pierre-Yves Boelle,1 Robert Will,2 Jean-Yves Cesbron3

The size of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic in the United Kingdom is a major public health concern and a subject of speculation. The cases are young (mean age = 28). Assuming that the risk of developing the disease in susceptible exposed subjects decreases exponentially with age after age 15, that all infections occurred between 1980 and 1989, and that the distribution of the incubation period is lognormal, we estimate that the mean duration of the incubation period is 16.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.4 to 23.2] and that the total number of cases will be 205 (upper limit of the 95% CI: 403).

1 Epidemiology and Information Sciences, INSERM U444, CHU Saint-Antoine, Université Pierre et Marie Curie et Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, 27 rue Chaligny, 75012 Paris, France.
2 National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Surveillance Unit, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
3 Immunité Anti-Infectieuse JE 2236, UFR de Médecine de Grenoble, Université Joseph Fourier, Domaine de la Merci, 38706 La Tronche, France.

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