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Originally published in Science Express on 3 October 2001
Science 26 October 2001:
Vol. 294. no. 5543, pp. 813 - 817
DOI: 10.1126/science.1065973
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Research Articles

Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape

Matt J. Keeling,1* Mark E. J. Woolhouse,2 Darren J. Shaw,2 Louise Matthews,2 Margo Chase-Topping,2 Dan T. Haydon,3 Stephen J. Cornell,1 Jens Kappey,1 John Wilesmith,4 Bryan T. Grenfell1

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
2 Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK.
3 Department of Zoology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada.
4 Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: matt{at}zoo.cam.ac.uk

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)