Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Science 20 July 2001:
Vol. 293. no. 5529, pp. 474 - 479
DOI: 10.1126/science.1060040
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications

Stanley B. Goldenberg,1* Christopher W. Landsea,1 Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,2 William M. Gray3

The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (>=50 meters per second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ~10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and mitigation strategies.

1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
2 Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
3 Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters.
H. Cannaby and Y. S. Husrevoglu (2009)
ICES J. Mar. Sci. 66, 1480-1489
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Thermodynamic control on the climate of intense tropical cyclones.
J. C. L. Chan (2009)
Proc R Soc A
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.
H.-M. Kim, P. J. Webster,, and J. A. Curry (2009)
Science 325, 77-80
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Impacts of tropical cyclones on U.S. forest tree mortality and carbon flux from 1851 to 2000.
H. Zeng, J. Q. Chambers, R. I. Negron-Juarez, G. C. Hurtt, D. B. Baker, and M. D. Powell (2009)
PNAS 106, 7888-7892
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies.
A. T. Evan, D. J. Vimont, A. K. Heidinger, J. P. Kossin, and R. Bennartz (2009)
Science 324, 778-781
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Hurricane Effects on the Piedmont Forests: Patterns and Implications.
W. Xi and R. K. Peet (2008)
Ecological Rest. 26, 295-298
   PDF »
Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty.
E. Regnier (2008)
Management Science 54, 16-28
   Abstract »    PDF »
Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane activity.
S. Hetzinger, M. Pfeiffer, W.-C. Dullo, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Zinke (2008)
Geology 36, 11-14
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?.
G. J Holland and P. J Webster (2007)
Phil Trans R Soc A 365, 2695-2716
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
From the Cover: Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event.
S. D. Donner, T. R. Knutson, and M. Oppenheimer (2007)
PNAS 104, 5483-5488
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective.
R. W. Kates, C. E. Colten, S. Laska, and S. P. Leatherman (2006)
PNAS 103, 14653-14660
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity.
D. L. Miller, C. I. Mora, H. D. Grissino-Mayer, C. J. Mock, M. E. Uhle, and Z. Sharp (2006)
PNAS 103, 14294-14297
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M. F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, M. Fiorino, et al. (2006)
PNAS 103, 13905-13910
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Hurricane Katrina: an environmental perspective.
E. McCallum and J. Heming (2006)
Phil Trans R Soc A 364, 2099-2115
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Seasonal influence of wave action on thread production in Mytilus edulis.
G. M. Moeser, H. Leba, and E. Carrington (2006)
J. Exp. Biol. 209, 881-890
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
From the Cover: Nonsynchronous recovery of community characteristics in island spiders after a catastrophic hurricane.
T. W. Schoener and D. A. Spiller (2006)
PNAS 103, 2220-2225
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment.
P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang (2005)
Science 309, 1844-1846
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Ecomechanics of Mussel Attachment: From Molecules to Ecosystems.
E. Carrington (2002)
Integr. Comp. Biol. 42, 846-852
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous?.
C. R. de Freitas (2002)
Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology 50, 297-327
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)