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Science 22 June 2001:
Vol. 292. no. 5525, pp. 2323 - 2325
DOI: 10.1126/science.1058321
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Reports

The Epidemic Behavior of the Hepatitis C Virus

Oliver G. Pybus,* Michael A. Charleston, Sunetra Gupta, Andrew Rambaut, Edward C. Holmes, Paul H. Harvey

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading worldwide cause of liver disease. Here, we use a new model of HCV spread to investigate the epidemic behavior of the virus and to estimate its basic reproductive number from gene sequence data. We find significant differences in epidemic behavior among HCV subtypes and suggest that these differences are largely the result of subtype-specific transmission patterns. Our model builds a bridge between the disciplines of population genetics and mathematical epidemiology by using pathogen gene sequences to infer the population dynamic history of an infectious disease.

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: oliver.pybus{at}zoo.ox.ac.uk

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Molecular tracing of Japan-indigenous hepatitis E viruses..
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Bayesian Coalescent Inference of Past Population Dynamics from Molecular Sequences.
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J. Gen. Virol. 86, 107-114
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P. Simmonds (2004)
J. Gen. Virol. 85, 3173-3188
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High Prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus Type 5 in Central France Evidenced by a Prospective Study from 1996 to 2002.
C. Henquell, C. Cartau, A. Abergel, H. Laurichesse, C. Regagnon, C. De Champs, J.-L. Bailly, and H. Peigue-Lafeuille (2004)
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Hepatitis C Virus Isolates from Argentina Disclose a Novel Genotype 1-Associated Restriction Pattern.
M. I. Gismondi, L. H. Staendner, S. Grinstein, C. A. Guzman, and M. V. Preciado (2004)
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Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens.
B. T. Grenfell, O. G. Pybus, J. R. Gog, J. L. N. Wood, J. M. Daly, J. A. Mumford, and E. C. Holmes (2004)
Science 303, 327-332
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J. Ndjomou, O. G. Pybus, and B. Matz (2003)
J. Gen. Virol. 84, 2333-2341
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U.S. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Epidemic: Date of Origin, Population History, and Characterization of Early Strains.
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J. Virol. 77, 6359-6366
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Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic.
P. Lemey, O. G. Pybus, B. Wang, N. K. Saksena, M. Salemi, and A.-M. Vandamme (2003)
PNAS 100, 6588-6592
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The Epidemiology and Iatrogenic Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus in Egypt: A Bayesian Coalescent Approach.
O. G. Pybus, A. J. Drummond, T. Nakano, B. H. Robertson, and A. Rambaut (2003)
Mol. Biol. Evol. 20, 381-387
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Molecular Characteristics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Subtype C Viruses from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Implications for Vaccine and Antiretroviral Control Strategies.
M. Gordon, T. De Oliveira, K. Bishop, H. M. Coovadia, L. Madurai, S. Engelbrecht, E. Janse van Rensburg, A. Mosam, A. Smith, and S. Cassol (2003)
J. Virol. 77, 2587-2599
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Inaugural Article: A comparison of the molecular clock of hepatitis C virus in the United States and Japan predicts that hepatocellular carcinoma incidence in the United States will increase over the next two decades.
Y. Tanaka, K. Hanada, M. Mizokami, A. E. T. Yeo, J. W.-K. Shih, T. Gojobori, and H. J. Alter (2002)
PNAS 99, 15584-15589
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