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External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
Peter A. Stott,1*S. F. B. Tett,1G. S. Jones,1M. R. Allen,2J. F. B. Mitchell,1G. J. Jenkins1
A comparison of observations with simulations of a
coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both
naturaland anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to
20thcentury temperature changes. The model successfully simulatesglobal mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicatingthat the climate response on these scales is strongly influencedby
external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scaleglobal
mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to50-year land
temperature variations are due to changes in externalforcings.
Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissionsscenario is
predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observedin recent
decades.
1 Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and Research, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK.
2 Space Science and Technology Department,
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, Oxfordshire OX11 0QX, UK and
Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
pastott{at}meto.gov.uk
The editors suggest the following Related Resources on Science sites:
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PERSPECTIVES
Francis W. Zwiers and Andrew J. Weaver (15 December 2000) Science290 (5499), 2081.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.290.5499.2081] |Summary »|Full Text »
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