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The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World
David J. Rogers,1*Sarah E. Randolph2
The frequent warnings that global climate change will
allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes,
includingEurope and large parts of the United States, are based on
biologicaltransmission models driven principally by temperature. These
modelswere assessed for their value in predicting present, and
thereforefuture, malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical
approach,the recorded present-day global distribution of
falciparum malariawas used to establish the current
multivariate climatic constraints.These results were applied to future
climate scenarios to predictfuture distributions, which showed
remarkably few changes, evenunder the most extreme scenarios.
1 Trypanosomiasis and Land-use in Africa
Research Group,
2 Oxford Tick Research Group,
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford
OX1 3PS, UK.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
david.rogers{at}zoology.ox.ac.uk
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