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Science 18 February 2000:
Vol. 287. no. 5456, pp. 1227 - 1232
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5456.1227
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Research Articles

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

B. D. Santer, 1* T. M. L. Wigley, 2 D. J. Gaffen, 3 L. Bengtsson, 4 C. Doutriaux, 1 J. S. Boyle, 1 M. Esch, 4 J. J. Hnilo, 1 P. D. Jones, 5 G. A. Meehl, 2 E. Roeckner, 4 K. E. Taylor, 1 M. F. Wehner 1

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

1 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
3 NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
4 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
5 Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: santer1{at}llnl.gov

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere.
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, S. A. Klein, D. J. Seidel, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, P. J. Gleckler, et al. (2005)
Science 309, 1551-1556
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The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature.
C. A. Mears and F. J. Wentz (2005)
Science 309, 1548-1551
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Multidecadal Changes in the Vertical Temperature Structure of the Tropical Troposphere.
D. J. Gaffen, B. D. Santer, J. S. Boyle, J. R. Christy, N. E. Graham, and R. J. Ross (2000)
Science 287, 1242-1245
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)