Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Science 4 February 2000:
Vol. 287. no. 5454, pp. 854 - 856
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5454.854
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird

B.-E. Sæther, 1* J. Tufto, 2 S. Engen, 2 K. Jerstad, 3 O. W. Røstad, 4 J. E. Skåtan 5

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.

1 Department of Zoology,
2 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
3 Aurebekk, N-4500 Mandal, Norway.
4 Department of Biology and Nature Conservation, Agricultural University of Norway, Post Office Box 5014, N-1432 Ås, Norway.
5 N-4592 Birkeland, Norway.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Bernt-Erik.Sather{at}chembio.ntnu.no

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
From the Cover: Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.
S. Jenouvrier, H. Caswell, C. Barbraud, M. Holland, J. Str{oelig}ve, and H. Weimerskirch (2009)
PNAS 106, 1844-1847
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Random-walk dynamics of exploited fish populations.
H.-S. Niwa (2007)
ICES J. Mar. Sci. 64, 496-502
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse.
G. X Ludwig, R. V Alatalo, P. Helle, H. Linden, J. Lindstrom, and H. Siitari (2006)
Proc R Soc B 273, 2009-2016
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Avian migration phenology and global climate change.
P. A. Cotton (2003)
PNAS 100, 12219-12222
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
El Nino drives timing of breeding but not population growth in the song sparrow (Melospiza melodia).
S. Wilson and P. Arcese (2003)
PNAS 100, 11139-11142
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: Nonlinearity and match-mismatch to the environment.
N. Chr. Stenseth and A. Mysterud (2002)
PNAS 99, 13379-13381
   Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)