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Science 4 February 2000:
Vol. 287. no. 5454, pp. 854 - 856
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5454.854
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Reports

Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird

B.-E. Sæther, 1* J. Tufto, 2 S. Engen, 2 K. Jerstad, 3 O. W. Røstad, 4 J. E. Skåtan 5

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.

1 Department of Zoology,
2 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
3 Aurebekk, N-4500 Mandal, Norway.
4 Department of Biology and Nature Conservation, Agricultural University of Norway, Post Office Box 5014, N-1432 Ås, Norway.
5 N-4592 Birkeland, Norway.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Bernt-Erik.Sather{at}chembio.ntnu.no

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