Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble
T. N. Krishnamurti,
1
C. M. Kishtawal,
1
Timothy E. LaRow,
1
David R. Bachiochi,
1
Zhan Zhang,
1
C.
Eric Williford,
1
Sulochana Gadgil,
2
Sajani Surendran
2
A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been
developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of
the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple
regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts
and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble
technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model
forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane
forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher
skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.
1 Department of Meteorology, Florida State University,
Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA.
2 Center for Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India.
