Anthropogenic Influence on the Autocorrelation Structure of Hemispheric-Mean Temperatures
T. M. L. Wigley,
*
R. L. Smith,
B. D. Santer
It is shown that lagged correlations for and cross-correlations
between observed hemispheric-mean temperature data differ markedly from
those for unforced (control-run) climate model simulations. The
differences can be explained adequately by assuming that the observed
data contain a significant externally forced component involving both
natural (solar) and anthropogenic influences and that the global
climate sensitivity is in the commonly accepted range. Solar forcing
alone cannot reconcile the differences in autocorrelation structure
between observations and model control-run data.
T. M. L. Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. R. L. Smith, Department of
Statistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.
B. D. Santer, PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: wigley{at}ucar.edu
