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Science 21 November 1997:
Vol. 278. no. 5342, pp. 1416 - 1417
DOI: 10.1126/science.278.5342.1416
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Policy Forum

Uncertainties in Projections of Human-Caused Climate Warming

J. D. Mahlman

Increased atmospheric greenhouse gases resulting from human activities have produced a sharp increase in the potential to warm the climate to levels that may have serious implications. Predictions of future climate changes in response to these greenhouse gas increases depend almost completely upon physically based mathematical models of the climate system. The strengths and weaknesses of these models to project various aspects of climate change are evaluated in terms of a "betting odds" approach to provide guidance to the policy deliberation process.

The author is at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA . E-mail: jm{at}gfdl.gov

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