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Science 13 September 1996:
Vol. 273. no. 5281, pp. 1536 - 1538
DOI: 10.1126/science.273.5281.1536
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Reports

Predicting the Occurrence of Endangered Species in Fragmented Landscapes

Niklas Wahlberg, * Atte Moilanen, Ilkka Hanski

Reliable prediction of metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes has become a priority in conservation biology, with ongoing destruction of habitat confining increasing numbers of species into networks of small patches. A spatially realistic metapopulation model, which includes the first-order effects of patch area and isolation on extinction and colonization, has been tested. The distribution of an endangered butterfly was successfully predicted on the basis of parameter values estimated for a well-studied congeneric species. This modeling approach can be a practical tool in the study and conservation of species in highly fragmented landscapes.

Department of Ecology and Systematics, Division of Population Biology, Post Office Box 17 (Arkadiankatu 7), FIN-00014 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: nwahlber{at}helsinki.fi


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Long-distance seed dispersal in plant populations.
M. L. Cain, B. G. Milligan, and A. E. Strand (2000)
Am. J. Botany 87, 1217-1227
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)