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Science 13 January 1995:
Vol. 267. no. 5195, pp. 211 - 213
DOI: 10.1126/science.267.5195.211
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Articles

Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region: A Possible Fractal Distribution of Rupture Size

S. E. Hough 1

1 United States Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA 91106, USA

Although there is debate on the maximum size of earthquake that is possible on any of several known fault systems in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region, it is reasonable to assume that the distribution of earthquakes will follow a fractal distribution of rupture areas. For this assumption and an overall slip-rate for the region of approximately 1 centimeter per year, roughly one magnitude 7.4 to 7.5 event is expected to occur every 245 to 325 years. A model in which the earthquake distribution is fractal predicts that, additionally, there should be approximately six events in the range of magnitude 6.6 in this same span of time, a higher rate than has occurred in the historic record.

Submitted on August 26, 1994
Accepted on November 9, 1994


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Comment on "The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by Steven G. Wesnousky.
Y. Y. Kagan (1996)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86, 274-285
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