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Science 3 March 1989:
Vol. 243. no. 4895, pp. 1173 - 1176
DOI: 10.1126/science.243.4895.1173
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Articles

Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California

PAUL A. REASENBERG 1 and LUCILE M. JONES 2

1 U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail stop 977, Menlo Park, CA 94025.
2 U.S. Geological Survey, 525 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91106.

After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.

Submitted on September 20, 1988
Accepted on December 23, 1988


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