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Science 8 July 1988:
Vol. 241. no. 4862, pp. 192 - 196
DOI: 10.1126/science.241.4862.192
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Articles

On the Prediction of the El Niño of 1986-1987

T. BARNETT 1, N. GRAHAM 1, M. CANE 2, S. ZEBIAK 2, S. DOLAN 2, J. O'BRIEN 3, and D. LEGLER 3

1 Climate Research Group, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093.
2 Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964.
3 Mesoscale Air-Sea Interaction Group, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306.

Three different classes of numerical models successfully predicted the occurrence of the El Niño of 1986-87 at lead times of 3 to 9 months. Although the magnitude and timing of predicted ocean surface temperatures were not perfect, these results suggest that routine prediction of moderate to lare El Niño events is feasible. The key to the success of the models lies in recognizing or simulating the low-frequency, large-scale changes in the tropical ocean-atmosphere system that give rise to El Niño events.

Submitted on February 1, 1988
Accepted on May 18, 1988


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