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Science 15 July 1977:
Vol. 197. no. 4300, pp. 266 - 270
DOI: 10.1126/science.197.4300.266
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Articles

Species Turnover Rates on Islands: Dependence on Census Interval

JARED M. DIAMOND 1 and ROBERT M. MAY 2

1 Physiology Department, University of California Medical Center, Los Angeles 90024
2 Biology Department, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

Measurements of species turnover in island bird communities demonstrate two trends with increasing census interval t: (i) Apparent turnover rates T decrease greatly with t, and (ii) the coefficient of variation of T decreases asymptotically to a constant value. These effects are predicted by a statistical model whose parameters are the immigration and extinction probabilities of each species. Available bird censuses at intervals of decades underestimate turnover rates by about an order of magnitude.

Submitted on August 31, 1976
Revised on December 13, 1976


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