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Published Online September 22, 2005
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1117368

Reports

Submitted on July 13, 2005
Accepted on September 13, 2005

Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming

F. S. Chapin III 1*, M. Sturm 2, M. C. Serreze 3, J. P. McFadden 4, J. R. Key 5, A. H. Lloyd 6, A. D. McGuire 7, T. S. Rupp 8, A. H. Lynch 9, J. P. Schimel 10, J. Beringer 9, W. L. Chapman 11, H. E. Epstein 12, E. S. Euskirchen 1, L. D. Hinzman 13, G. Jia 14, C. L. Ping 15, K. D. Tape 1, C. D. C. Thompson 1, D. A. Walker 1, J. M. Welker 16

1 Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
2 U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Alaska, Ft. Wainwright, AK 99703-0170, USA.
3 Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0216, USA.
4 Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
5 NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
6 Department of Biology, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 05443, USA.
7 U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
8 Department of Forest Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
9 School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia.
10 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9610, USA.
11 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
12 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123, USA.
13 Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
14 FRWS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
15 Palmer Research Station, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Palmer, 99645 AK, USA.
16 Environment and Natural Resources Institute, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, 99501, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
F. S. Chapin III , E-mail: terry.chapin{at}uaf.edu

A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 W m-2 decade-1, (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). Continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating 2-7 times.


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