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Published Online July 21, 2005
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1116030

Reports

Submitted on June 13, 2005
Accepted on July 8, 2005

Multiple Causes of High Extinction Risk in Large Mammal Species

Marcel Cardillo 1, Georgina M. Mace 2, Kate E. Jones 3, Jon Bielby 2, Olaf R.P. Bininda-Emonds 4, Wes Sechrest 5, David L. Orme 6, Andy Purvis 7

1 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park NW1 4RY, UK.
2 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park NW1 4RY, UK.
3 Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4328, USA; present address: Earth Institute, Center for Environmental Research & Conservation, Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, MC5556, New York, NY 10027, USA.
4 Lehrstuhl für Tierzucht, Technical University of Munich, Alte Akademie 12, 85354 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany.
5 Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4328, USA; present address: IUCN Global Mammal Assessment, c/o Center for Applied Biodiversity, Conservation International, 1919 M Street, NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA.
6 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
7 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK; NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.

Many large animal species are at high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size-selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3kg. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal biodiversity could be far more rapid than expected.


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