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Submitted on March 17, 2005
Accepted on May 12, 2005
Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans
Tim P. Barnett 1*, David W. Pierce 1, Krishna M. AchutaRao 2, Peter J. Gleckler 2, Benjamin D. Santer 2, Jonathan M. Gregory 3, Warren M. Washington 4
1 Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. 2 Program for Climate Model Diagnoses and Intercomparison/Lawrence Livermore National Labatory, Post Office Box 808, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. 3 UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. 4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Tim P. Barnett , E-mail: tbarnett{at}ucsd.edu
A warming signal has penetrated into the world's oceans overthe past 40 years. The signal is complex, with a vertical structurethat varies widely by ocean; it cannot be explained by naturalinternal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing,but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climatemodels. We conclude that it is of human origin, a conclusionrobust to observational sampling and model differences. Changesin advection combine with surface forcing to give the overallwarming pattern. The implications of this study suggest thatsociety needs to seriously consider model predictions of futureclimate change.
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