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Published Online April 28, 2005
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1110252

Research Articles

Submitted on January 26, 2005
Accepted on April 19, 2005

Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications

James Hansen 1*, Larissa Nazarenko 1, Reto Ruedy 2, Makiko Sato 1, Josh Willis 3, Anthony Del Genio 4, Dorothy Koch 1, Andrew Lacis 4, Ken Lo 2, Surabi Menon 5, Tica Novakov 5, Judith Perlwitz 1, Gary Russell 6, Gavin A. Schmidt 1, Nicholas Tausnev 2

1 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA; Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
2 SGT Incorporated, New York, NY 10025, USA.
3 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
5 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
6 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
James Hansen , E-mail: jhansen{at}giss.nasa.gov

Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 W/m2 more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include: (i) expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6°C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)