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Published Online November 22, 2001
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1067475

Reports

Submitted on October 26, 2001
Accepted on November 15, 2001

The Potential Size and Duration of an Epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in British Sheep

R. R. Kao 1*, M. B. Gravenor 2, M. Baylis 2, C. J. Bostock 2, C. M. Chihota 2, J. C. Evans 2, W. Goldmann 3, A. J. A. Smith 3, A. R. McLean 1

1 University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, South Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
2 Institute for Animal Health, Compton Laboratory, Compton, nr Newbury, Berks. RG20 7NN, UK.
3 Institute for Animal Health, Neuropathogenesis Unit, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JF, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: rowland.kao{at}zoo.ox.ac.uk.

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), we examine the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in Britain showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Though there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low, however a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.


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