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Published Online October 3, 2001
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1065973

Research Articles

Submitted on September 4, 2001
Accepted on September 25, 2001

Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape

Matt J. Keeling 1*, Mark E. J. Woolhouse 2, Darren J. Shaw 2, Louise Matthews 2, Margo Chase-Topping 2, Dan T. Haydon 3, Stephen J. Cornell 1, Jens Kappey 1, John Wilesmith 4, Bryan T. Grenfell 1

1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
2 Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK.
3 Department of Zoology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada.
4 Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: matt{at}zoo.cam.ac.uk.

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We develop an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatio-temporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.


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