Prospects for Human Longevity S. Jay Olshansky, Bruce A. Carnes, and Aline Désesquelles

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Supplemental Figure 2. Percentage of reduction in the conditional probability of death at all ages, and at ages 50 and older, required to raise life expectancy at birth up to 100 years from levels present in 1985 and 1995 (Japanese females).

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Supplemental Figure 3. Percentage of reduction in the conditional probability of death at all ages, and at ages 50 and older, required to raise life expectancy at birth up to 100 years from levels present in 1995 (France, males and females).

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Supplemental Figure 4. Percentage of reduction in the conditional probability of death at all ages required to raise life expectancy at birth by 1 year when life expectancy is between 50 and 80 years. Data for this figure are based on the use of the proportional reduction method at all ages used in this analysis, but applied to the mortality schedules present among females in France in the 20th century that were closest to life expectancies at birth of 50, 60, 70, and 80. Data for this analysis were drawn from the Berkeley Mortality Database [http://demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality]. Proportional reduction in mortality at all ages was chosen as a method for estimating how much death rates would have to decline to raise life expectancy to specified levels, because there is no justification at this time for choosing varying rates of mortality change within specified age ranges. If we had made projection assumptions within specified age ranges based on observed trends in mortality, this would pose a computational problem given that death rates in some age groups have increased in recent years.

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