Predictability of the UK Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Epidemic Jerome N Huillard d'Aignaux, Simon N Cousens, Peter G Smith

For the offset generalised F distribution, the figure is displayed assuming a central estimate of 190 000 infections resulting in 500 clinical cases. The line above corresponds to the situation where the number of infections is about 13 000 000.

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Supplemental Figure 2. Age-susceptibility function. This function is derived from the distribution of dates of birth in observed cases by considering the age distribution of all cases over the exposure period. One bar represents 5-years age bands.

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Supplemental Table 1. Prediction intervals over the next 50 years for two assumed incubation period distributions.
Incubation period distribution	Year	Predicted number of cases*	Approximate upper 95% limit	Approximate upper 99 % limit
Offset Generalised F	2005	16	50	65
	2010	12	70	130
	2020	8	70	165
	2040	4	70	190
	2050	1	15	80
Offset log-normal	2005	14	50	70
	2010	9	70	110
	2020	5	105	200
	2040	2	100	250
	2050	1	55	140
(*) For the offset generalised F distribution, the prediction limits have been calculated assuming the most likely number of infections to have been 190 000, resulting in an expected total of 500 clinical cases.