Figure 1

Fig. 1. Epidemic curves as predicted by the model of Stilianakis et al. (34) for parameters characterizing interventions with oseltamivir. [For model equations and parameter values, see the SOM (35).] (A) Number of infected individuals using treatment only (red) or using prophylaxis in addition to treatment (blue) over the first 30 days of the epidemic. The gray line shows the course of the epidemic without any intervention. The solid lines depict the total number of infected individuals, whereas the dashed lines depict the number of individuals infected with resistant virus. The total number of illnesses during the 30-day period is 247, 227, or 26 in the epidemic with no intervention, with treatment, or with prophylaxis, respectively. (We assume that there is no pre-existing immunity in the population.) All symptomatic individuals receive treatment on average 1.4 days after the onset of symptoms. Prophylaxis starts at day 7. (B) Fraction of individuals infected with resistant virus under treatment (red) and prophylaxis (blue). [View Larger Version of this Image (118K JPEG file)]

 

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